"It's a beautiful night for Oscar, Oscar, Oscar who will win?" - Billy Crystal from the 1991 telecast

My old buddy Monk suggested that I give out my predictions for Oscar hardware, so I'll still give it a go...

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, Capote
SHOULD WIN: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, Capote
MY PICK: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, Capote

He blows the competition away with his performance in this film. There's really no room for debate otherwise.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: GEORGE CLOONEY, Syriana
SHOULD WIN: PAUL GIAMATTI, Cinderella Man
MY PICK: PAUL GIAMATTI, Cinderella Man

Though I really enjoyed Matt Dillon's performance in Crash, I think it's a travesty that he was the only nominated actor from that fine film. His character vaguely mentioned where his racist thoughts derive from, but he never really addressed it, but rather lived with it. It was disturbingly too real for me. Giamatti got robbed last year when he should've been nominated his role as Miles in Sideways. Clooney will win because he's nominated so many times, and no one would balk at a win in this category if he were snubbed the rest of the night.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: REESE WITHERSPOON, Walk the Line
SHOULD WIN: CHARLIZE THERON, North Country
MY PICK: REESE WITHERSPOON, Walk the Line

I very much enjoyed Ms. Witherspoon's performance but I felt it was lacking something. But then again, maybe Walk the Line was missing something. Now that I think about it, that's what it was. Her performance was real, intense, warm, engaging, and refreshing. Hopefully she'll stick to these type of roles and move away from the Legally Blonde III : The Big Apple projects. Charlize Theron's role and its relevance has a better social message and in the end is far more important than the abbreviated story of June Carter, but Reese will probably walk away with the statue. I'm a huge Felicity Huffman fan though, and a win for her would be a true delight for her performance in Transamerica.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: RACHEL WEISZ, The Constant Gardener
SHOULD WIN: RACHEL WEISZ, The Constant Gardener
MY PICK: FRANCES MCDORMAND, North Country

I'm a huge Frances McDormand fan, so anything she comes with I feel is solid. This is truly a remarkable Oscar field for women. There's a wide array of very talented actresses in Hollywood right now, and it is refreshing to see them tackling the roles that they are. I wish more women of color could get a piece of that action however.

ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were Rabbit
MY PICK: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were Rabbit

I love Wallace & Gromit, and so does the Academy. I grew up on the films of Tim Burton, but I think Wallace & Gromit might have the Corpse Bride beat out on this one.

ART DIRECTION
WILL WIN: Good Night, and Good Luck
SHOULD WIN: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
MY PICK: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

They WENT THERE in Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. I'm sure Pride and Prejudice was pretty, but Harry Potter's art direction was groundbreaking.

CINEMETOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain/Memoirs of a Geisha
SHOULD WIN: Good Night, and Good Luck
MY PICK: Good Night, and Good Luck

COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: Pride & Prejudice
SHOULD WIN: Pride & Prejudice
MY PICK: Pride & Prejudice

DIRECTING
WILL WIN: ANG LEE, Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD WIN: PAUL HAGGIS, Crash
MY PICK: PAUL HAGGIS, Crash

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: March of the Penguins
MY PICK: Murderball

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
WILL WIN: God Sleeps in Rwanda
MY PICK: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club

FILM EDITING
WILL WIN: Munich
MY PICK: Munich

Amazing film.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: Final Days
MY PICK: Tsotsi

Tsotsi is a MUST SEE film.

MAKEUP
WILL WIN: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
MY PICK: Star Wars III

Sentimental.

MUSIC (SCORE)
WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain/Munich
MY PICK: Munich

MUSIC (SONG)
WILL WIN: "In the Deep"/"It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp"
SHOULD WIN: "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp"
MY PICK: "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp"

I voiced my opinion on this in a previous blog but "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" perfectly crystallizes and captures the mood and feel of this film, so it should not only be nominated, but it should WIN. THREE SIX FO' LIFE!

BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain/Crash
SHOULD WIN: Crash/Good Night, and Good Luck
MY PICK: Crash/Munich

I haven't seen Brokeback, but I will, and I will write about it then. However, I feel that Crash was superb and Munich was Spielberg at his best.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
MY PICK: One Man Band

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
MY PICK: Six Shooter

SOUND EDITING
WILL WIN: King Kong
MY PICK: War of the Worlds

I judge my pick solely based on the fact that I jumped more in this movie than I have in a very, very, very long time.

SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: King Kong/The Chronicles of Narnia
MY PICK: Walk the Line

VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
SHOULD WIN: King Kong
MY PICK: King Kong

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD WIN: Capote
MY PICK: A History of Violence

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
WILL WIN: Syriana/Crash
SHOULD WIN: Good Night, and Good Luck
MY PICK: Match Point

I'm Joe and that's how I see it.